Key facts about Syria

Syria is undergoing significant change. Rebels have taken over the capital, Damascus, while President Bashar al-Assad is nowhere to be found. Dead or exiled—no one is sure yet. It is suspected that his plane was shot down by an Israeli missile attack. Iranian, Iraqi, and Pakistani Shia militias, who had vowed to defend the Shrine of Bibi Zainab from desecration by extremist Sunni militias, have already fled, leaving the shrine unattended. I would like to highlight some key facts and provide an unbiased background on Syria. It is a diverse country in the Levant region of the Middle East, with a population characterized by ethnic, religious, and linguistic diversity. Here’s an overview of Syria’s demographics:

Religious Composition

1. Sunni Muslims
   • Approx. 74% of the population.
   • Includes both Arabs and Kurds.

2. Alawites

1. • Approx. 11-13%.
   • A Shia sect; Bashar al-Assad and much of the ruling elite belong to this group.
   • Concentrated in the Latakia and Tartus coastal regions.

3. Christians

1. • Approx. 10%.
   • Includes Orthodox, Catholic, and Protestant denominations.
   • Found in urban centers like Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs.

4. Druze

1. • Approx. 3%.
   • A distinct monotheistic religion with its own customs and traditions.
   • Concentrated in the southern region of As-Suwayda.

5. Shia Muslims

1. • Approx. 1-2%.
   • Includes Twelvers and Ismailis.

6. Yazidis and Other Small Groups

1. • Minor communities with unique religious and cultural identities.

Hafez al-Assad, the father of Bashar al-Assad, took power in Syria on November 13, 1970, through a bloodless military coup known as the Corrective Movement. Hafez became Prime Minister immediately after the coup and later consolidated power as President in 1971, a position he held until his death in 2000. Hafez al-Assad was a senior officer in the Syrian Air Force and used his position to cultivate strong loyalty among military commanders. He relied on fellow Alawite officers, many of whom shared his sectarian and regional background, to secure key military positions. The Ba’ath Party, which emphasized Arab nationalism and socialism, provided a platform for his rise. However, Assad sidelined rivals within the party, particularly Salah Jadid, who had previously been his superior. As an Alawite (a minority Shia sect), Hafez relied heavily on his sectarian network, which played a key role in the military and security services. The Soviet Union backed Hafez al-Assad, providing political, military, and economic support, which strengthened his position domestically and internationally.

Despite being an Alawite in a majority Sunni country, Hafez al-Assad managed to gain Sunni support initially due to several factors:

1. Arab Nationalism and Secularism:
   • Assad positioned himself as a proponent of secularism and Arab nationalism, distancing his rule from sectarian divisions.
   • His Ba’athist ideology appealed to many Sunnis, as it emphasized Arab unity, socialism, and modernization.

2. Economic and Social Reforms:

1. • Early in his rule, Assad implemented land reforms, infrastructure projects, and state-led economic policies that improved living standards for many, including rural Sunnis.
   • These policies initially garnered support from both urban and rural Sunni communities.

3. Strong Leadership and Stability:

1. • After years of political instability and coups in Syria, many Sunnis welcomed Assad’s authoritarian rule as it brought a semblance of order and stability.

4. Inclusion of Sunnis in Power:

1. • Hafez strategically included prominent Sunnis in his government to broaden his support base. For example, Sunnis held key positions in the government and military, though real power remained concentrated among Alawites and Assad loyalists.

5. Anti-Israel and Pan-Arab Stance:

1. • Assad’s strong anti-Israel rhetoric and participation in the October War (Yom Kippur War) in 1973 resonated with Sunni Arab sentiments, reinforcing his legitimacy.

While Sunni communities initially accepted Assad, opposition grew over time due to increasing authoritarianism, sectarian favoritism, and crackdowns on dissent, culminating in the Hama massacre of 1982, where thousands of Sunni Muslim Brotherhood members and civilians were killed in a brutal suppression of an uprising. This event permanently strained Sunni-Alawite relations in Syria.

Bashar al-Assad took over the power after his father’s death. He managed to survive his reign despite a devastating civil war that began in 2011 and significant opposition from both domestic and international actors. His survival can be attributed to a combination of internal strategies, external alliances, and favorable geopolitical circumstances. Bashar al-Assad,  has been accused of committing numerous war crimes and human rights violations during the Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011.

Iran provided billions of dollars in financial aid, military advisors, and weapons to prop up Assad’s government. Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon played a crucial role in ground offensives, particularly in strategic battles like Qusayr (2013).

In 2015, Russia launched an air campaign in Syria, providing critical support to Assad’s military. Russian airstrikes targeted rebels and bolstered Assad’s position. Russia used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block resolutions aimed at sanctioning or removing Assad. China backed Assad in international forums, opposing interventionist policies and providing economic aid.

The Syrian rebels comprise various groups opposing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, with differing ideologies and objectives. A prominent faction is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani. HTS has played a significant role in recent offensives, including the capture of Aleppo and Damascus, leading to the collapse of Assad’s government.  Abu Mohammad al-Julani, born Ahmed al-Sharaa, emerged from al-Qaeda affiliations to lead HTS. Under his leadership, HTS has rebranded itself, claiming a commitment to a democratic and pluralistic Syria. Despite these assertions, al-Julani has a controversial past, including a substantial bounty on his head due to his previous extremist associations.

The Syrian rebel landscape also includes the National Front for Liberation (NFL), a coalition of factions such as the Sham Legion and Jaysh al-Ahrar. The NFL operates under the umbrella of the Syrian National Army and has been active in northwestern Syria. 

Leadership within these groups varies. For instance, Fadlallah al-Haji, associated with the Sham Legion, has held command positions within the NFL. However, the most prominent figure among the rebels remains al-Julani, whose leadership has been pivotal in recent developments. Regarding legal status, al-Julani has been designated a terrorist by several countries, including the United States, which has offered a substantial reward for information leading to his capture. This designation stems from his past affiliations with extremist organizations, despite his current efforts to rebrand HTS 

Role of Regional Powers in Toppling Bashar al-Assad

1. Israel

   – Focused on countering Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria targeting weapons shipments and Iranian positions.

   – While not directly supporting rebels, it has reportedly provided humanitarian aid and limited tactical support near the Golan Heights to secure its border.

2. Turkey

   – Actively supports Syrian opposition groups, especially factions aligned with the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

   – Aims to prevent Kurdish dominance near its border and counter both Assad and extremist factions.

3. Saudi Arabia & Qatar

   – Initially supported rebel groups as part of its broader effort to counter Iran’s influence in the region.

   – Funding and arms were directed toward more moderate factions early in the conflict.

These countries’ involvement has been driven by their distinct geopolitical interests.t will be interesting to see the political drama unfold in the coming days and months. One thing is certain: a new world order is emerging. The globalist powers that created the League of Nations will not allow any non-member country or entity to determine the fate of the region. We are part of a living matrix, where all opposing power players are interconnected and acting in their own interests. The role of Iranian mullahs appears to be diminishing and could potentially be eliminated altogether. How and when this might happen is unpredictable. Only those in charge of the global “game of thrones” truly know the answers. 

Nadeem Rizvi